As value investors we gravitate to undervalued securities—those that are inexpensive relative to our fair market value (FMV) assessments, because they are out of favour or underestimated. Similarly, we steer clear of those that are popular and dear.

We look to avoid overly popular companies that are priced too high, susceptible to decline, and result in misery.

Animals hibernate for self preservation—to conserve energy during adverse conditions. But then they emerge, ready for the more bountiful period that awaits.

While we still see an economic setback ahead, and a commensurate market reaction, we expect markets to discount the pending recession, and then once again focus on recovery. In the meantime, we are hibernating—hedging portfolios (afraid of market declines) and buying undervalued, high-quality, recession-resistant companies below our estimated FMVs.

Most don’t practice value investing—instead relying on buy and hold, momentum, or index strategies, all much easier on the psyche in the short term. To us, it’s simple common sense to embrace mean-reversion strategies—those offering better upside potential, especially during a period when most securities have downside risk since they are already at or above FMVs.

The rise in interest rates has been felt across the U.S. economy. Commercial and Industrial loan growth is declining, for the first time since 2020. And it began declining before the recent U.S. bank failures, which were 3 of the 4 largest of its kind. We will continue to hone our short game—hedging portfolios—while playing the long game—owning high-quality companies we expect to grow their earnings and underlying valuations.