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LATEST INSIGHTS
Thoughts, insights and opinions from our team of investment experts

Spectate or Speculate
Investors should not take either of these extreme stances. Without a crystal ball, it’s extraordinarily difficult to time tops or bottoms. Speculation is accompanied by too much risk— outsized declines can arrive at any time. Sitting in cash and waiting for a better entry point can have the opposite effect as business valuations generally ascend with the march of time—so most returns are made from being fully invested to benefit from the lift in underlying security values.

Expectations Running High
Most major markets around the world have reached all-time highs. Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus has bridged the economic hole created by COVID-19. However, markets appear to have risen too far too fast.

The New Abnormal
While markets could continue their ascent, we believe that extended valuations and exuberance should at least temporarily cap market indexes. We remain defensive, holding some cash and/or a reasonable sized hedge, while we continue to hunt for undervalued high-quality businesses, both here and abroad, especially since overseas investment options are cheaper than comparable U.S. shares.

TAM Flimflam
Many stocks, with little earnings or even revenue today, have had significant runs on TAM enthusiasm alone. Management teams will enthusiastically describe how a product will capture hundreds of millions of customers 5 to 10 years out. Be mindful of the myriad micro and macro risks that will likely materialize between now and then.
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