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LATEST INSIGHTS
Thoughts, insights and opinions from our team of investment experts
The Long and Short of It
The rise in interest rates has been felt across the U.S. economy. Commercial and Industrial loan growth is declining, for the first time since 2020. And it began declining before the recent U.S. bank failures, which were 3 of the 4 largest of its kind. We will continue to hone our short game—hedging portfolios—while playing the long game—owning high-quality companies we expect to grow their earnings and underlying valuations.
Tall Expectations Warrant Short Exposure
Many indicators of past economic slowdowns are now sounding an alarm. Yield curves in most major economies around the world are inverted. Despite these bright red lights, investors appear sanguine.
Are We Having a Recession Or Not?
Globally, growth is waning, though at a tepid pace because of the prior avalanche of government stimulus, rebuilding of supplies, and extremely low unemployment. Will central bank restraint lead to a mere petering out of growth, if inflation is quickly perceived to have been ameliorated, or is recession inevitable from one of the fastest tightening responses on record?
Up and Down
And up and down. Like a toilet seat, yo-yo, a game of Snakes & Ladders, not straight up and down like an elevator, but more like the ups and downs of a rollercoaster—that’s how the financial markets have felt lately. Unusually volatile, reacting to headlines related to inflation, rising interest rates, declining corporate earnings, layoffs, Ukraine, and covid-shutdowns in China. Emotions have been pushing markets up and down, while underlying fundamentals worsen.
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